**Heading into 2027, Indonesia’s gaharu (agarwood) prices look set to hold firm, with upward pressure on top resin grades and oud oil, and flatter movement on lower grades. As of 2026, indicative brand pricing is USD 500-7,000/kg for plantation gaharu chips (grade-dependent) and USD 30,000-80,000/kg for oud oil. This is an outlook, not a forecast.**
Call this a direction of travel, not a promise. Nobody can pin a 2027 price to a specific grade of gubal or kemedangan today, and any broker who claims otherwise is guessing. What we can do is read the dated 2026 signals — demand growth, currency, supply quotas, regulation — and say which way the pressure points. Every number below is indicative, subject to change, and confirmed only by a live quote against your actual material and volume.
What is driving gaharu prices toward 2027?
Three demand engines are running at once. First, market size: multiple 2024-2025 industry reports project the global agarwood/oud market to reach roughly USD 23.47 billion by 2033 at about 7.12% CAGR across 2026-2033. Second, geography — the same reports name Asia-Pacific as the fastest-growing region at roughly 47.8% share by 2033, with China alone holding about 22.4% of the global market. Third, the Gulf: Kumparan’s banjarhits desk (South Kalimantan) reported high-quality agarwood oil selling at USD 20,000-50,000 per liter, driven by Middle East perfume and bakhoor demand.
For per-grade prices, that mix matters. Growth concentrated in Asia and the Gulf pulls hardest on the resin-rich top grades and on distilled oud oil — the products those buyers actually pay for. You can see the current tier-by-tier breakdown on our gaharu grade pricing page; the 2027 view simply asks where each tier drifts from here.
Which grades set the ceiling — and which the floor?
The spread between top and bottom grades is enormous, and it has been widening. Silvikultur UGM figures (October 2016) put gaharu double super at Rp 30-40 million/kg and abu/bubuk (dust) at just Rp 20,000-50,000/kg. By July 2025, zonakeren.com’s export list showed Double King at USD 54,688/kg and Medang C at only USD 47/kg — a gap of more than a thousand-fold.
Here is the 2026 baseline against the indicative 2027 direction, grade by grade:
| Grade (local / export term) | 2026 indicative | 2027 pressure |
|---|---|---|
| Double super / Double King | Rp 30-40M/kg; up to USD 54,688/kg | Firm to higher |
| Super tanggung / Super King | Rp 15-30M/kg; ~USD 42,969/kg | Firm |
| TG-B / AB Super | Rp 5-15M/kg; ~USD 5,469/kg | Steady |
| Kemedangan | Rp 2-5M/kg | Steady to soft |
| Gaharu teri | Rp 1-2M/kg | Flat |
| Abu / bubuk (dust) | Rp 20,000-50,000/kg | Flat |
| Oud / agarwood oil | USD 30,000-80,000/kg | Firm to higher |
The pattern: scarcity concentrates at the top. Kynam-class material almost never appears — tokolantaikayu.net (May 2025) listed Super Kynam/Kyara whole gubal at Rp 1-1.5 billion/kg, Grade A at Rp 50-100 million/kg, and Grade C at Rp 500,000-10 million/kg. When supply of high-resin, sinking wood stays thin against Gulf and Chinese demand, the ceiling holds or rises. The floor grades, easy to produce and easy to substitute, do not enjoy the same pull.
What do the headline reports say about the top end?
Big numbers get quoted often, so weigh them carefully. CNBC Indonesia’s 2025 coverage put local high-quality gaharu at up to Rp 53 million/kg and international-grade at up to Rp 133 million/kg — a step down from its own 2022 citation of up to USD 100,000/kg (about Rp 1.5 billion/kg) for the very top quality. Inews Medan (2022) reported a similar split: low quality Rp 300,000-10 million/kg, high quality reaching USD 100,000/kg.
Two takeaways for 2027. Those seven-figure-rupiah headlines describe rare Kynam-tier lots, not the plantation chips most exporters actually ship. And the softening between the 2022 and 2025 CNBC figures is a reminder that “up only” is not guaranteed — grade verification, not headline chasing, is where value is protected.
What legal and supply signals shape the 2027 outlook?
Regulation is the single biggest swing factor, because Aquilaria spp. sits on CITES Appendix II. Legal export requires proving legal origin (cultivated versus wild) through KLHK, a BKSDA (Balai Konservasi Sumber Daya Alam) recommendation for wild sources, ASGARIN membership, and a CITES export permit valid up to about six months, with processing running up to about 60 days for some destinations. To be clear: legal export requires a CITES permit and a BKSDA recommendation. This site is a sourcing broker and information hub, not a permit authority — confirm current requirements with the CITES Management Authority (Indonesia) and your import country.
Supply-side signals for 2026-2027:
- Quotas. Central Kalimantan received a 4,000-ton export quota in 2023. Quota direction into 2027 will shape how much legal, documented material reaches ceilings.
- Maturation lag. Plantation trees typically need 7-15 years to mature, so any planting done now feeds supply around 2033-2040, not 2027. Near-term supply is largely already in the ground.
- Currency and cost. Bank Indonesia cut its rate to 5.25% in July 2025; a softer rupiah tends to lift USD-denominated export competitiveness while raising imported-input costs.
- Fraud risk. Satgas Waspada Investasi flagged PT Gaharu Kapita Indonesia among a 27-firm illegal-investment list in 2024 — a caution that high prices attract scams, not just buyers.
Documented producing regions remain Kalimantan, Papua (Jayapura, Merauke), Ambon, and Sumbawa. No public source names Bali as a production origin; Bali’s role is trade and hub, not source.
How wide is the retail-to-export gap?
Very wide, and worth stating so 2027 buyers set expectations correctly. Lamudi.co.id (2024, domestic e-commerce, not bulk export) listed bukhur chips at Rp 52,495/kg and Kalimantan powder at Rp 81,150/kg at the low end, up to grade AB at Rp 7.5 million/kg and Ambon grade 2 at Rp 15.15 million/kg. A 2025 Saudi retail example priced 1 gram of chips at about Rp 390,000 and 66 grams at about Rp 25.8 million.
Those consumer prices sit far above bulk export rates per kilo because they bake in retail margin, packaging, and small-lot handling. For 2027 planning, anchor to export bands, not marketplace listings.
What should buyers do before 2027?
Lock grade first, price second. The 2027 direction rewards verified high-resin material and penalizes vague “mixed grade” lots. Ask for resin content, sinking behavior, and aroma notes in writing; insist on documented legal origin; and treat any single fixed “market price” as a red flag — real gaharu pricing is always a grade-dependent band. Our trade desk quotes against your actual sample within 24 business hours, and never sells permit certainty or a customs guarantee.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will gaharu prices rise across every grade in 2027?
No. The 2026 signals point to firm-to-higher pressure on top resin grades and oud oil, driven by Gulf and Chinese demand, while lower grades like kemedangan, gaharu teri, and dust likely stay flat. This is an indicative outlook, not a forecast — actual 2027 prices depend on quotas, currency, and verified grade, confirmed only by a live quote.
What could push 2027 gaharu prices down?
Three things: tighter or slower CITES permitting that shrinks legal export volume, a wave of maturing plantation supply reaching market, or demand cooling in China and the Gulf. The softening between CNBC Indonesia’s 2022 and 2025 top-end figures shows prices can drift lower. Fraud crackdowns, like Satgas Waspada Investasi’s 2024 list, can also chill speculative buying.
Is 2027 a good year to start a gaharu plantation for export?
Planting in 2027 is a long game, not a 2027 payday. Trees typically need 7-15 years to mature, so Aquilaria planted now yields inoculation-ready wood around 2034-2042. It can be sound if you plan for legal origin documentation, CITES compliance, and patient capital — but treat any promise of fast returns as a warning sign, not an opportunity.